Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro

Vasco DA Gama host Cruzeiro in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estádio São Januário. Vasco DA Gama sit 17th in the table and Cruzeiro are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Vasco DA Gama have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D D L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Cruzeiro have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W W W L). Cruzeiro are averaging 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded per game, keeping 5 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 3 for Cruzeiro and 4 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.92 to 1.34.

Vasco home form shows LDDLL but xG remains decent (1.92). Cruzeiro arrive in excellent form (LWWWW) with 1.34 xG. H2H shows frequent scoring (3-3, 2-0, 1-0 pattern). Over 1.5 backed by metrics and history.