Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino

Sao Paulo host RB Bragantino in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS. Sao Paulo sit 11th in the table and RB Bragantino are 9th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Sao Paulo have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D L D L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games RB Bragantino have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats (D L D W L). RB Bragantino are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 8 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Sao Paulo, 2 for RB Bragantino and 3 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.49 to 0.73.

Sao Paulo's exceptional expected goals differential and home strength align with the 92% double chance probability, eliminating risk from the weak away side.