Al Riyadh vs NEOM

Al Riyadh host NEOM in the Pro League, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Al Riyadh sit 12th in the table and NEOM are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Al Riyadh have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L D W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 5 league games NEOM have taken 3 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L W). NEOM are averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 1 win for Al Riyadh, 2 for NEOM and 0 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.04 to 0.90.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Al Riyadh vs NEOM) at 87% based on expected goals of 1.04-0.90.