Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

Aarhus host FC Midtjylland in the Superliga, kicking off on Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at New Vejlby Stadium. Aarhus sit 11th in the table and FC Midtjylland are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games Aarhus have taken 2 draws and 3 defeats (D L D L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games FC Midtjylland have taken 3 wins and 2 draws (W D W D W). FC Midtjylland are averaging 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 0 wins for Aarhus, 4 for FC Midtjylland and 6 draws, averaging 1.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.10 to 1.05.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland) at 83% based on expected goals of 1.10-1.05.