TSV Hartberg vs Ried

TSV Hartberg host Ried in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Profertil Arena Hartberg. TSV Hartberg sit 6th in the table and Ried are 9th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games TSV Hartberg have taken 2 wins and 3 defeats (L L L W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Ried have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (D L L W L). Ried are averaging 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 7 wins for TSV Hartberg, 1 for Ried and 2 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.46 to 0.76.

Hartberg 52% home win probability is the highest single outcome here. Although home form is poor (LLLW), Ried's away struggles (0.5 goals avg) and Hartberg's home xG of 1.46 support the home or draw double chance at high confidence.