Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna host Sturm Graz in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Allianz Stadion. Rapid Vienna sit 3rd in the table and Sturm Graz are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 5 league games Rapid Vienna have taken 4 wins and 1 defeat (W W W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 5 league games Sturm Graz have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D W W D L). Sturm Graz are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Rapid Vienna, 4 for Sturm Graz and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 82% at odds of 1.22. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.24 to 1.76.

Rapid Vienna's strong form (3.67 goals avg, three straight wins) and Sturm Graz's reasonable output (1.76 xG away) combine for a competitive fixture with high goal expectancy. Over 1.5 is the clear base pick at 82%.