Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir host Kasımpaşa in the Süper Lig, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Başakşehir sit 9th in the table and Kasımpaşa are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 3 league games Başakşehir have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Kasımpaşa have taken 1 win and 2 draws (D W D). Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 8 wins for Başakşehir, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws, averaging 4.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 4.26 to 0.56.

Başakşehir's overwhelming 4.26 xG and 94% home win probability are reinforced by Kasımpaşa's injuries and minimal attacking threat (0.56 xG). The home-or-draw selection at 99% reflects a mismatch.