Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren

Kilmarnock host ST Mirren in the Premiership, kicking off on Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at Rugby Park. Kilmarnock sit 12th in the table and ST Mirren are 2nd, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Kilmarnock have taken 4 defeats (L L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games ST Mirren have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W W D W). ST Mirren are averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 6 wins for Kilmarnock, 1 for ST Mirren and 2 draws, averaging 3.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 75% at odds of 1.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.28 to 1.25.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren) at 75% based on expected goals of 1.28-1.25.