ST Mirren vs Motherwell

ST Mirren host Motherwell in the Premiership, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at The SMISA Stadium. ST Mirren sit 2nd in the table and Motherwell are 4th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games ST Mirren have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W W D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Motherwell have taken 2 wins and 2 draws (W D D W). Motherwell are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for ST Mirren, 4 for Motherwell and 5 draws, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 91% at odds of 1.1. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.56 to 1.89.

St Mirren are severe underdogs: Motherwell's xG advantage (1.89 vs 0.56) is extreme, and recent head-to-head shows Motherwell winning decisively. 91% is appropriate.