Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht

Union St. Gilloise host Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Stade Joseph Marien. Union St. Gilloise sit 4th in the table and Anderlecht are 10th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Union St. Gilloise have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Anderlecht have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (W L L W). Anderlecht are averaging 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 7 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 1 for Anderlecht and 1 draw, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 4.17 to 0.52.

Union's massive expected-goals advantage (4.17 vs 0.52) and 94% home-win probability make this one-sided. Anderlecht's recent away form (0 goals in last away fixture) offers no counter-evidence.