Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves

Felgueiras 1932 host Chaves in the Segunda Liga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos. Felgueiras 1932 sit 10th in the table and Chaves are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Felgueiras 1932 have taken 1 win and 3 draws (D D D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Chaves have taken 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L D L). Chaves are averaging 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 7 meetings have produced 4 wins for Felgueiras 1932, 2 for Chaves and 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 76% at odds of 1.32. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.12 to 1.36.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves) at 76% based on expected goals of 1.12-1.36.