FC Porto B vs Penafiel

FC Porto B host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes. FC Porto B sit 15th in the table and Penafiel are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games FC Porto B have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L L W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Penafiel have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L D W W). Penafiel are averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for FC Porto B, 3 for Penafiel and 2 draws, averaging 2.9 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 91% at odds of 1.1. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.06 to 0.62.

Porto B's significant xG advantage (2.06) over Penafiel (0.62) and their home-ground strength make Home or Draw compelling at 91% confidence. Penafiel's weak away form (0.0 away goals avg) reduces their win probability substantially.