Portimonense vs Leixoes

Portimonense host Leixoes in the Segunda Liga, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026. Portimonense sit 4th in the table and Leixoes are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Portimonense have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (W W D L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Leixoes have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (L W L W). Leixoes are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 7 meetings have produced 1 win for Portimonense, 4 for Leixoes and 2 draws, averaging 2.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.83 to 1.97.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Portimonense vs Leixoes) at 90% based on expected goals of 1.83-1.97.