Benfica vs Estoril

Benfica host Estoril in the Primeira Liga, kicking off on Monday, 31 August 2026 at Estádio da Luz. Benfica sit 5th in the table and Estoril are 17th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Benfica have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (D W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 3.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Estoril have taken 1 draw and 3 defeats (D L L L). Estoril are averaging 0.5 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 9 wins for Benfica, 0 for Estoril and 0 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Home Win (Home) as the pick, rated 77% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.74 to 0.80.

Statistical model favors Home (Benfica vs Estoril) at 77% based on expected goals of 2.74-0.80.