Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Casa Pia host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Casa Pia sit 18th in the table and Moreirense are 11th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Casa Pia have taken 4 defeats (L L L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Moreirense have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat (D L W). Moreirense are averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 8 meetings have produced 3 wins for Casa Pia, 4 for Moreirense and 1 draw, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.31 to 0.42.

Casa Pia is in freefall defensively (conceding 3.33 per game) but offers no offensive threat (0 goals in last 3 games). Moreirense's minimal away xG (0.42) means limited scoring capacity. Under 3.5 is heavily favoured despite the context.