Alverca vs Santa Clara

Alverca host Santa Clara in the Primeira Liga, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Alverca sit 16th in the table and Santa Clara are 4th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Alverca have taken 2 draws and 2 defeats (L D L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Santa Clara have taken 2 wins and 2 draws (D W W D). Santa Clara are averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 0 wins for Alverca, 1 for Santa Clara and 2 draws, averaging 2.3 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.29 to 1.06.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Alverca vs Santa Clara) at 79% based on expected goals of 1.29-1.06.