PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen

PEC Zwolle host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026. PEC Zwolle sit 13th in the table and NEC Nijmegen are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 5 league games PEC Zwolle have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats (L L W L D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 3 league games NEC Nijmegen have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (L W W). NEC Nijmegen are averaging 2.7 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 6 for NEC Nijmegen and 3 draws, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.79 to 1.34.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen) at 83% based on expected goals of 0.79-1.34.