Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

Excelsior host Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Stadion Woudestein. Excelsior sit 9th in the table and Sparta Rotterdam are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Excelsior have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (W L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L W D L). Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Excelsior, 5 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draw, averaging 3.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.28 to 0.58.

Excelsior dominates expected play (2.28 xG) at home against Sparta's weak away form (0.58 xG). Home or draw at 93% reflects a strong form advantage that past meetings (mixed results) do not overturn.