Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

Groningen host Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Euroborg. Groningen sit 10th in the table and Fortuna Sittard are 6th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Groningen have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Fortuna Sittard have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (D W L W). Fortuna Sittard are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 3 wins for Groningen, 6 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.93 to 0.97.

Groningen is favoured at home with 58% win probability and 83% Double Chance 1X. The injury load is shared; model already reflects the competitive balance.