Montpellier vs Boulogne

Montpellier host Boulogne in the Ligue 2, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Stade de la Mosson. Montpellier sit 4th in the table and Boulogne are 13th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Montpellier have taken 2 wins and 2 draws (D W W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Boulogne have taken 3 draws and 1 defeat (D L D D). Boulogne are averaging 0.3 scored and 0.5 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 0 wins for Montpellier, 2 for Boulogne and 1 draw, averaging 1.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 87% at odds of 1.15. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.16 to 0.74.

Low expected goals total (Montpellier 1.16, Boulogne 0.74) suggests a tight, low-scoring affair. Montpellier's solid defence (0.33 GAA) and Boulogne's limited attack support the Under.