Mantova vs Empoli

Mantova host Empoli in the Serie B, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Mantova sit 2nd in the table and Empoli are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Mantova have taken 2 wins (W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Empoli have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (W L). Empoli are averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 3 meetings have produced 1 win for Mantova, 1 for Empoli and 1 draw, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.00 to 0.86.

Mantova's significant xG edge (2.0 to 0.86) and recent winning form on home ground make Home or Draw the clear favourite. Empoli's modest xG suggests limited away threat. The 86% confidence is well-calibrated.