Cadiz vs Valladolid

Cadiz host Valladolid in the Segunda División, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Nuevo Mirandilla. Cadiz sit 17th in the table and Valladolid are 19th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Cadiz have taken 3 draws (D D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Valladolid have taken 1 draw and 2 defeats (L L D). Valladolid are averaging 0.3 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 3 wins for Cadiz, 2 for Valladolid and 5 draws, averaging 1.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.27 to 0.81.

Cadiz (1.27 xG) and Valladolid (0.81 xG) combine for modest scoring potential. Valladolid's two straight losses with no goals scored suggest continued offensive struggles. Under 3.5 is well-supported at 84% confidence.