Millwall vs Wrexham

Millwall host Wrexham in the Championship, kicking off on Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at The Den. Millwall sit 10th in the table and Wrexham are 11th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Millwall have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Wrexham have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D D L W). Wrexham are averaging 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 2 meetings have produced 1 win for Millwall, 1 for Wrexham and 0 draws, averaging 2.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 79% at odds of 1.27. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.53 to 0.91.

Millwall hold 50% win probability at home with strong recent results and a structured defence. Wrexham sit bottom of the league and have managed only one goal per game. Double Chance Home/Draw offers excellent value at 79% confidence.