Stoke City vs Norwich

Stoke City host Norwich in the Championship, kicking off on Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at bet365 Stadium. Stoke City sit 22nd in the table and Norwich are 20th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Stoke City have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L L L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Norwich have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L L W L). Norwich are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Stoke City, 6 for Norwich and 3 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.35 to 2.85.

Norwich's 2.85 expected goals and Stoke's 3.0 goals-against average justify 93% confidence for Over 1.5. Stoke's recent 4-1 away defeat and 24th-place position underline their defensive fragility despite Norwich's 4-1 recent result.