Birmingham vs Southampton

Birmingham host Southampton in the Championship, kicking off on Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Birmingham sit 8th in the table and Southampton are 18th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 4 league games Birmingham have taken 1 win and 3 draws (D D W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Southampton have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L W W D). Southampton are averaging 2.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 6 meetings have produced 0 wins for Birmingham, 4 for Southampton and 2 draws, averaging 3.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 84% at odds of 1.19. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.73 to 1.53.

Southampton's 5-1 win over Millwall demonstrates attacking intent, backed by 1.53 xG. Birmingham score only 0.73 xG and have conceded regularly. The Draw or Away selection at 84% reflects the attacking imbalance.