Portsmouth vs Derby

Portsmouth host Derby in the Championship, kicking off on Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at Fratton Park. Portsmouth sit 21st in the table and Derby are 16th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Portsmouth have taken 1 win and 3 defeats (L W L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Derby have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D L W). Derby are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 1 win for Portsmouth, 3 for Derby and 6 draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 71% at odds of 1.41. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.56 to 1.06.

Portsmouth are favoured at 47% for a home win, but Derby's recent 3-0 defeat and last-place status suggest greater away danger than the model's baseline implies. Reducing confidence from 76 to 71.