Southampton vs Millwall

Southampton host Millwall in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton sit 18th in the table and Millwall are 10th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Southampton have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat (L W W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Millwall have taken 2 wins and 2 defeats (W W L L). Millwall are averaging 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 2 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Southampton, 3 for Millwall and 2 draws, averaging 3.0 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 86% at odds of 1.16. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.96 to 1.01.

Southampton and Millwall show minimal attacking threat relative to defensive solidity, especially Millwall (2 clean sheets, 0.0 goals conceded). Under 3.5 is well-grounded in expected goals.