Derby vs Swansea

Derby host Swansea in the Championship, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Pride Park Stadium. Derby sit 16th in the table and Swansea are 1st, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Derby have taken 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Swansea have taken 3 wins and 1 draw (W D W W). Swansea are averaging 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded per game, keeping 3 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Derby, 5 for Swansea and 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance 1X (Home or Draw) as the pick, rated 85% at odds of 1.18. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.62 to 0.71.

Derby at home with a significant xG edge over Swansea (1.62 vs 0.71) and 58% win probability. Home or Draw provides strong safety at 0.85 despite both teams' injury concerns.