Wrexham vs Birmingham

Wrexham host Birmingham in the Championship, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Racecourse Ground. Wrexham sit 11th in the table and Birmingham are 8th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 4 league games Wrexham have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat (D D L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 4 league games Birmingham have taken 1 win and 3 draws (D D W D). Birmingham are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 5 meetings have produced 0 wins for Wrexham, 3 for Birmingham and 2 draws, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.92 to 1.16.

Wrexham and Birmingham show moderate goal-scoring metrics with expected goals of 1.92 and 1.16 respectively. Over 1.5 carries 83% probability, reflecting a likely low-scoring but not barren encounter.