Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

Stade Brestois 29 host Toulouse in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026. Stade Brestois 29 sit 11th in the table and Toulouse are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Stade Brestois 29 have taken 2 draws (D D). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Toulouse have taken 1 draw and 2 defeats (L D L). Toulouse are averaging 0.7 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 5 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Toulouse and 3 draws, averaging 3.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.25 to 2.17.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse) at 92% based on expected goals of 2.25-2.17.