Lyon vs Le Havre

Lyon host Le Havre in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Lyon sit 2nd in the table and Le Havre are 15th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Lyon have taken 1 win and 1 draw (W D). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Le Havre have taken 1 draw and 1 defeat (L D). Le Havre are averaging 0.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 7 meetings have produced 3 wins for Lyon, 1 for Le Havre and 3 draws, averaging 2.4 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 80% at odds of 1.25. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.39 to 1.49.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Lyon vs Le Havre) at 80% based on expected goals of 1.39-1.49.