Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Lille host Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy. Lille sit 3rd in the table and Paris Saint Germain are 12th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Lille have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (W D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Paris Saint Germain have taken 2 draws (D D). Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 0 wins for Lille, 7 for Paris Saint Germain and 3 draws, averaging 4.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.45 to 1.32.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Lille vs Paris Saint Germain) at 90% based on expected goals of 0.45-1.32.