SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen

SC Freiburg host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion. SC Freiburg sit 2nd in the table and Werder Bremen are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 1 league game SC Freiburg have taken 1 win (W). At home and away combined they are averaging 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 1 league game Werder Bremen have taken 1 defeat (L). Werder Bremen are averaging 1.0 scored and 4.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 8 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for Werder Bremen and 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 76% at odds of 1.32. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.47 to 0.99.

Freiburg's expected goals of 1.47 combined with Bremen's 0.99 creates a low-scoring fixture. The model's 76% confidence reflects realistic goal expectations for this mid-table Bundesliga matchup.