Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Signal Iduna Park. Borussia Dortmund sit 5th in the table and Hamburger SV are 15th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 1 league game Borussia Dortmund have taken 1 win (W). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 1 league game Hamburger SV have taken 1 defeat (L). Hamburger SV are averaging 0.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 7 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 1 for Hamburger SV and 2 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 90% at odds of 1.11. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 2.72 to 1.10.

Dortmund's superior xG and home advantage ensure a high-volume attacking display. Hamburg are positioned 13th and concede freely. H2h shows high-scoring games (3-2, 3-0, 2-0). The 90% over 1.5 is well-calibrated.