Atalanta vs Bologna

Atalanta host Bologna in the Serie A, kicking off on Monday, 31 August 2026 at New Balance Arena. Atalanta sit 6th in the table and Bologna are 15th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Atalanta have taken 2 wins (W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Bologna have taken 2 defeats (L L). Bologna are averaging 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Atalanta, 5 for Bologna and 1 draw, averaging 1.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5 GOALS) as the pick, rated 73% at odds of 1.3. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.52 to 1.00.

Statistical model favors Draw (Atalanta vs Bologna) at 38% based on expected goals of 0.52-1.00.