Lazio vs Genoa

Lazio host Genoa in the Serie A, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio sit 7th in the table and Genoa are 20th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Lazio have taken 2 wins (W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Genoa have taken 2 defeats (L L). Genoa are averaging 0.0 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 8 wins for Lazio, 2 for Genoa and 0 draws, averaging 2.7 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.77 to 0.66.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Lazio vs Genoa) at 92% based on expected goals of 0.77-0.66.