Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Sevilla host Atletico Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026. Sevilla sit 7th in the table and Atletico Madrid are 4th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 3 league games Sevilla have taken 2 wins and 1 defeat (W W L). At home and away combined they are averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Atletico Madrid have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (W D W). Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 2 wins for Sevilla, 7 for Atletico Madrid and 1 draw, averaging 3.2 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Over 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) as the pick, rated 76% at odds of 1.32. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.42 to 1.24.

Statistical model favors Over 1.5 (Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid) at 76% based on expected goals of 1.42-1.24.