Alaves vs Villarreal

Alaves host Villarreal in the La Liga, kicking off on Friday, 28 August 2026 at Estadio de Mendizorroza. Alaves sit 5th in the table and Villarreal are 15th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 3 league games Alaves have taken 2 wins and 1 draw (W D W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game this season, with 2 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 3 league games Villarreal have taken 2 draws and 1 defeat (D D L). Villarreal are averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Alaves, 3 for Villarreal and 3 draws, averaging 2.8 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 75% at odds of 1.33. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.32 to 1.23.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Alaves vs Villarreal) at 75% based on expected goals of 1.32-1.23.