Sunderland vs Fulham

Sunderland host Fulham in the Premier League, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Stadium of Light. Sunderland sit 12th in the table and Fulham are 16th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Sunderland have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (L W). At home and away combined they are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Fulham have taken 2 defeats (L L). Fulham are averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 0 clean sheets so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 4 wins for Sunderland, 4 for Fulham and 2 draws, averaging 2.6 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 92% at odds of 1.09. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.83 to 0.70.

Statistical model favors Under 3.5 (Sunderland vs Fulham) at 92% based on expected goals of 0.83-0.70.