Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea host Brighton in the Premier League, kicking off on Sunday, 30 August 2026 at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea sit 4th in the table and Brighton are 10th, so the hosts start as the higher-ranked side.

Over their last 2 league games Chelsea have taken 2 wins (W W). At home and away combined they are averaging 3.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Brighton have taken 1 win and 1 defeat (W L). Brighton are averaging 3.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 10 meetings have produced 6 wins for Chelsea, 4 for Brighton and 0 draws, averaging 4.2 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Double Chance X2 (Draw or Away) as the pick, rated 83% at odds of 1.2. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 0.78 to 1.57.

Brighton's first-place position and Chelsea's vulnerable home record favour a draw or away win. Brighton's superior expected goals (1.57 away vs Chelsea's 0.78 home) supports the market.