Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham host Newcastle in the Premier League, kicking off on Saturday, 29 August 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Tottenham sit 20th in the table and Newcastle are 7th, so the visitors come in above their hosts.

Over their last 2 league games Tottenham have taken 2 defeats (L L). At home and away combined they are averaging 0.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game this season, with 0 clean sheets on the board.

Over their last 2 league games Newcastle have taken 1 win and 1 draw (D W). Newcastle are averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, keeping 1 clean sheet so far.

Their last 9 meetings have produced 1 win for Tottenham, 6 for Newcastle and 2 draws, averaging 3.1 goals a game. That recent history is one of the inputs behind the rating below.

Weighing recent scoring rates, home and away splits and the head-to-head record through a Poisson model with a Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment, our engine lands on Under 3.5 Goals (Under 3.5) as the pick, rated 78% at odds of 1.28. The model's expected-goals line for this fixture is 1.08 to 1.08.

Despite balanced xG (1.08–1.08), both teams face significant absences. Tottenham are 18th with 0 goals for and 3 conceded in limited form data. The injury count suggests tactical conservatism and reduced attacking threat, supporting under 3.5 more than the base 83%.